GCSE Maths Grade Indicators - Probability


 

Grade 1
  • discuss events using words such as ‘likely’, ‘unlikely’, ‘certain’, ‘impossible’.
  • place the probability of events on a scale from impossible to certain.
  • use the language of chance or likelihood
  • find probabilities based on equally likely outcomes in simple contexts.
  • List all outcomes for single events systematically
Grade 2
  • use the vocabulary and ideas of probability, drawing on experience
  • understand and use the probability scale from 0 to 1
  • find and justify probabilities based on equally likely outcomes in simple contexts
  • identify all the possible mutually exclusive outcomes of a single event.
  • Find the probability of an event happening using theoretical probability
  • Use theoretical models to include outcomes using dice, spinners, coins
  • Write probabilities in words or fractions, decimals and percentages
  • Work out probabilities from frequency tables
  • Identify different mutually exclusive outcomes and know that the sum of the probabilities of all outcomes is 1
  • estimate probabilities by collecting data from a simple experiment and recording in a frequency table
  • compare experimental and theoretical probabilities in simple contexts.
  • Find the probability of an event happening using relative frequency
  • Estimate the number of times an event will occur, given the probability and the number of trials – for both experimental and theoretical probabilities
  • List all outcomes for combined events systematically
Grade 3
  • interpret results of an experiment using the language of probability and appreciate that random processes are unpredictable
  • know that, if the probability of an event occurring is p, then the probability of it not occurring is 1 – p
  • use diagrams and tables to record all possible mutually exclusive outcomes for single events and for two successive events
  • Work out probabilities from two-way tables
  • Record outcomes of probability experiments in tables
  • Add simple probabilities
  • List all outcomes for combined events systematically
  • Use and draw sample space diagrams
  • compare estimated experimental probabilities with theoretical probabilities, recognising that:
  • if an experiment is repeated, the outcome may and usually will be different
  • increasing the number of times an experiment is repeated generally leads to better estimates of probability
  • Work out probabilities from Venn diagrams to represent real-life situations and also ‘abstract’ sets of numbers/values
  • Compare experimental data and theoretical probabilities
  • Use tree diagrams to calculate the probability of two independent events
Grade 4
Grade 5
  • Write probabilities using fractions, percentages or decimals;
  • Understand and use experimental and theoretical measures of probability, including relative frequency to include outcomes using dice, spinners, coins, etc;
  • Estimate the number of times an event will occur, given the probability and the number of trials;
  • Find the probability of successive events, such as several throws of a single dice;
  • List all outcomes for single events, and combined events, systematically;
  • Draw sample space diagrams and use them for adding simple probabilities;
  • Know that the sum of the probabilities of all outcomes is 1;
  • Use 1 – p as the probability of an event not occurring where p is the probability of the event occurring;
  • Draw a probability tree diagram based on given information, and use this to find probability and expected number of outcome;
  • Work out probabilities from Venn diagrams to represent real-life situations and also ‘abstract’ sets of numbers/values;
  • Use union and intersection notation;
Grade 6
Grade 7
Grades 8 - 9